Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ccf…0c6e sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$442 (-5%) realized −$442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%38W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$72
14 days−$68
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$358
other 2% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.6% -20.0% 50% 47% -7.0%
≤30d 72 -16.2% -24.2% 42% 39% -14.8%
≤90d 90 -17.6% -25.4% 42% 40% -15.8%
all 90 -17.6% -25.4% 42% 40% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 40% -15.8%
10% -32.6% 39% -23.9%
15% -39.1% 34% -31.3%
20% -45.0% 31% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$69 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses38 / 52
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage36d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $103 +$56 +54%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $99 +$42 +42%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $149 +$58 +39%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $157 −$38 -24%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $87 −$20 -23%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $52 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $115 +$135 +117%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$57 +112%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $79 +$79 +100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $149 +$77 +52%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $135 +$145 +107%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $99 +$73 +73%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $124 −$123 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $75 +$49 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $143 +$108 +75%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $109 +$222 +203%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$33 +68%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $89 −$88 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $44 +$45 +101%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Just Players - Map 2 Winner May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pl May 28 $109 −$56 -51%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Just Players - Map 1 Winner May 28 $32 +$77 +237%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Se May 28 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner May 28 $30 +$33 +109%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $149 −$119 -80%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner May 27 $200 −$197 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner May 27 $80 −$79 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $99 +$132 +133%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $141 −$139 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $166 +$273 +165%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $70 +$96 +136%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 2 Winner May 26 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 25 $26 −$26 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner May 24 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $159 7m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $142 19m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 64¢ $103 1h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $69 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $61 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $89 15h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 15h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $100 15h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $49 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $87 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $48 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 26¢ $39 22h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 83¢ $188 22h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 52¢ $96 23h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 52¢ $22 23h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 4¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records