Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2cd0…8e55 crypto 344 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,203 (-1%) realized −$7,203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%327W / 15L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,274per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$101
14 days+$194
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$757
other 40% −$2,238
finance 4% +$29
sports 3% −$4,262
world 1% −$46
politics 1% +$4
tech 0% +$20
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 121 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 244 -0.0% -9.6% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 342 +5.2% -4.8% 96% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 1% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 1% -19.0%
15% -22.2% 1% -26.8%
20% -29.9% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$4,093) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$744 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$4,966
Realized−$7,203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses327 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)342 / 344
History coverage183d
Avg bet$2,274
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,789 $2,787 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,178 $2,179 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $1,597 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $948 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $239 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4,948 +$14 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $4,944 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $4,934 +$9 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $4,929 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2,166 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,759 +$3 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2,164 +$2 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 16? Jun 16 $136 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? Jun 16 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,991 +$19 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4,898 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,894 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $4,875 +$18 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4,865 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 13? Jun 13 $4,665 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $196 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? Jun 13 $171 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 12? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 12? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $196 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 12? Jun 12 $4,660 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4,852 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 11? Jun 12 $4,829 +$23 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,824 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $4,820 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $991 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,120 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,703 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $3,248 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $571 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 9? Jun 09 $990 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $667 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,878 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $259 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 8? Jun 09 $824 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 8? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $3,024 +$6 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 8? Jun 09 $666 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $259 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $665 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,541 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $440 on June 8? Jun 08 $76 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,509 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4,782 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $4,777 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $4,773 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,789 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,178 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $948 11h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $699 22h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,966.15 · official $4,966.15 (match) · 1243 history records