Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2cd0…fb3d other 445 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,277 (-9%) realized −$1,114 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate73%307W / 111L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$322
7 days−$415
14 days−$683
30 days−$1,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$454
other 25% −$354
politics 23% −$460
sports 5% +$12
finance 2% −$14
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% −$3
culture 0% −$19
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.5% -18.1% 67% 22% -19.2%
≤30d 47 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 19% -21.2%
≤90d 173 -5.4% -14.4% 77% 25% -20.7%
all 418 -6.1% -15.0% 73% 35% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 35% -17.2%
10% -23.1% 17% -25.2%
15% -30.6% 10% -32.4%
20% -37.4% 6% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized−$1,114
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses307 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)418 / 445
History coverage242d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 45¢ 24¢ $202 $106 −$97 (-48%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? No 30¢ 23¢ $66 $51 −$16 (-24%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $23 $33 +$10 (+43%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 52¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+92%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+106%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-83%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 100¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 95¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 98¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$20 (-97%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Yes 56¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $634 −$137 -22%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $393 −$191 -49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $294 +$45 +15%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,130 +$57 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $790 −$196 -25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 10 $220 −$21 -10%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 09 $96 −$33 -34%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $201 −$26 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $275 −$143 -52%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 07 $26 −$2 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 07 $294 −$29 -10%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $238 −$10 -4%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 07 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 06 $58 −$7 -11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $372 −$62 -17%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $310 −$294 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $1,073 −$7 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $8 −$3 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $728 $0 +0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2 $0 +3%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima May 31 $7 −$2 -24%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $5 +$1 +30%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? May 30 $80 −$1 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? May 30 $2 $0 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2 $0 +8%
Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $2 $0 +5%
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $2 $0 +11%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Dycom Industries (DY) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on May 18? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 24? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $2 +$1 +42%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $3 $0 +16%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) beat quarterly earnings? May 23 $2 $0 +4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or higher on May 18? May 21 $1 $0 +8%
Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $102 2m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 2m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $67 53m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $21 54m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $101 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $4 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $19 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $65 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $4 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $12 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $3 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $5 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $5 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $15 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $20 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $3 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $6 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $53 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $12 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $66 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $56 7h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $15 15h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $22 18h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $43 18h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $25 21h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $15 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.79 · official $644.80 (match) · 1270 history records