Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cd2…555b other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-65%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.1% -68.5% 33% 0% -67.6%
≤30d 3 -65.1% -68.5% 33% 0% -67.6%
≤90d 3 -65.1% -68.5% 33% 0% -67.6%
all 3 -65.1% -68.5% 33% 0% -67.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.5% 0% -67.6%
10% -71.5% 0% -70.7%
15% -74.2% 0% -73.5%
20% -76.8% 0% -76.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$46 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $91 −$90 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 47m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $91 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.21 · official $50.21 (match) · 4 history records