Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2cd2…88e1 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$168 (+1%) realized +$162 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%42W / 1L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$59
other 17% +$36
finance 13% +$19
world 7% +$13
economics 5% +$6
tech 5% +$20
politics 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 43 +1.7% -7.9% 98% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 2% -8.9%
10% -16.8% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 2% -25.5%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$688) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$1,240
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses42 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage248d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $560 $561 +$1 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $464 $470 +$6 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 24 $765 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $759 +$6 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 06 $755 +$3 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 05 $154 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,209 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? May 15 $1,204 +$7 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $1,198 +$6 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? Apr 17 $1,192 +$6 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $692 +$14 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $421 +$6 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 28 $358 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 27 $221 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $358 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $357 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $354 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 12 $642 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $640 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $633 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 10 $632 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Mar 08 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 22 $693 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 13? Feb 11 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $274 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $689 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? Feb 09 $688 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $658 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $21 +$8 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 5? Feb 04 $678 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 3 Feb 02 $677 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 30 $296 +$7 +2%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Jan 27 $367 +$7 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 30 $359 +$7 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $344 +$15 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November? Nov 29 $330 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 10? Nov 11 $330 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 07 $322 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on November 4? Nov 05 $328 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 31 $327 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on October 22? Oct 26 $223 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 23? Oct 26 $324 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 23? Oct 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 21? Oct 21 $324 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $209 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY No 100¢ $560 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $769 29h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $765 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $107 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $658 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $759 15d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $584 19d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $174 19d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $174 20d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $154 20d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $581 23d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $154 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $754 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 26d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY No 98¢ $464 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $463 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,209 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $57 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $100 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $36 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $50 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $126 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $63 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $53 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $80 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $100 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $5 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? SELL No 100¢ $6 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,239.69 · official $1,239.69 (match) · 162 history records