Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2ce0…8d6f other 324 markets active 0h ago coverage 722d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,089 (-4%) realized −$11,495 · open +$406
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%148W / 166L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$796per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$5,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,523
7 days+$622
14 days+$4,572
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$16,509
other 30% −$22,141
sports 22% +$10,306
economics 12% +$9,903
tech 2% +$3,599
world 1% +$216
finance 0% −$764
politics 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.6% -27.2% 40% 40% -6.0%
≤30d 33 -20.1% -27.7% 36% 36% -11.5%
≤90d 95 -14.3% -22.5% 45% 40% -12.4%
all 314 -15.7% -23.7% 47% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 44% -15.3%
10% -31.0% 40% -23.4%
15% -37.7% 32% -30.8%
20% -43.8% 26% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$529 vs −$570 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

722d coverage
Net worth$5,631
Realized−$11,495
Unrealized+$406
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses148 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions10
Markets (closed)314 / 324
History coverage722d
Avg bet$796
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 46¢ $1,354 $1,470 +$115 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 60¢ $1,000 $1,062 +$62 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $983 −$17 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $500 $777 +$277 (+55%)
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $552 $567 +$15 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $360 $382 +$22 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $134 $145 +$11 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $136 $106 −$30 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $128 $96 −$32 (-25%)
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $62 $43 −$19 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $730 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,036 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $829 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$145 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$179 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $366 +$643 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $256 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $709 −$700 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$241 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $507 +$402 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 −$110 -43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1,018 +$1,490 +146%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,021 +$875 +29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $500 −$60 -12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $504 +$119 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,218 +$686 +56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $202 +$55 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,232 +$2,345 +190%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $512 −$500 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 04 $1,337 +$363 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $1,913 +$4,087 +214%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $3,044 −$2,576 -85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2,481 −$1,731 -70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,655 −$563 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $203 −$134 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 27 $278 −$201 -72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $2,031 +$2,135 +105%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $102 +$71 +70%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $3,498 +$1,320 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 03 $1,757 −$1,757 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 03 $509 +$151 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 03 $513 +$266 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 03 $1,036 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 03 $1,030 −$987 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 03 $616 −$519 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 02 $1,000 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 02 $1,000 +$100 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 02 $509 +$147 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 02 $1,853 +$1,212 +65%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 02 $90 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 02 $652 −$633 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 02 $521 −$311 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $209 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $357 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $165 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $414 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $207 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $207 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $261 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $256 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 58¢ $709 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $507 4h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 4h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $506 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $144 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $254 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,630.91 · official $5,631.11 (match) · 1200 history records