Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2ce1…8dc0 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%22W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$32
other 27% −$1
crypto 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -14.4% -22.6% 27% 27% -14.4%
≤30d 63 -15.8% -23.8% 27% 27% -15.5%
≤90d 73 -3.1% -12.3% 30% 30% -8.7%
all 75 -5.7% -14.6% 29% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 29% -9.4%
10% -22.8% 28% -18.1%
15% -30.3% 25% -26.0%
20% -37.1% 25% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$36 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses22 / 53
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage102d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 30¢ $5 $76 +$71 (+1425%)
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$16 +114%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$46 +226%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 +$7 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 +$6 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$92 +360%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$118 +116%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 +$26 +513%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 +$269 +873%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $82 +$158 +194%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$20 +66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$228 +223%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL No 70¢ $10 47m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $10 55m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $14 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 2h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 6¢ $8 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $67 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $19 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 40¢ $38 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $31 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 69¢ $13 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $65 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $36 20h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $118 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.40 · official $29.79 · 118 history records