Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2ce3…1fc9 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$10
politics 21% −$16
other 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +7.8% -2.5% 55% 55% -7.3%
≤30d 24 +5.1% -4.9% 54% 54% -7.6%
≤90d 24 +5.1% -4.9% 54% 54% -7.6%
all 24 +5.1% -4.9% 54% 54% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 54% -7.6%
10% -14.0% 54% -16.4%
15% -22.3% 54% -24.5%
20% -29.9% 54% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Over 56¢ 90¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 44¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Team WE 44¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) KT Rolster 52¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Anyones Legend 71¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Top Esports 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 68¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$5 +83%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 +$6 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$4 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$2 -49%
Haiti vs. Peru: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $3 +$2 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 56¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $6 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $6 5h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Top Esports 51¢ $5 15h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 50¢ $5 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $6 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 23h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Qatar 100¢ $6 24h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $4 26h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $5 34h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 52¢ $7 39h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $6 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $6 44h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $9 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 4d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL Yes $0 5d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY Yes $1 6d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) BUY Anyones Legend 71¢ $5 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 30¢ $5 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 30¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.43 · official $14.43 (match) · 56 history records