Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2ce6…e378 crypto 167 markets active 54d ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,417 (+49%) realized +$16,487 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%83W / 80L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$17,983
crypto 26% −$790
sports 19% −$1,270
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 101 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 40% +20.6%
all 163 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 40% +38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 40% +38.7%
10% -22.8% 33% +25.4%
15% -30.2% 24% +13.3%
20% -37.1% 20% +2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +52% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$58 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$16,487
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses83 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions4
Markets (closed)163 / 167
History coverage138d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $135 $164 +$28 (+21%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $160 $130 −$30 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $80 $45 −$35 (-44%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 45¢ 14¢ $47 $14 −$33 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $38 −$8 -20%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $56 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 21 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 21 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $55 −$18 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 16 $200 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 15 $46 −$39 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 15 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $26 +$74 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 15 $76 −$62 -81%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 15 $30 −$13 -44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $19 +$31 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 14 $35 +$21 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 14 $70 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 14 $150 +$59 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $70 +$41 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 13 $66 −$54 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 13 $66 +$67 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 13 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 13 $70 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 13 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 13 $70 −$47 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 13 $70 +$42 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 12 $70 +$79 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 12 $60 +$35 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 12 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 12 $65 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 12 $50 +$15 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 12 $97 +$56 +57%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Brentford FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $39 +$1 +3%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $126 +$35 +27%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $152 +$21 +14%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $360 +$19 +5%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,634 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $18 −$17 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Apr 11 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $76 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 53d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 53d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 53d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 53d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 53d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 54d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 87¢ $59 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $40 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $0 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $9 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $20 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 55d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 57d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.68 · official $452.68 (match) · 865 history records