Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ce7…bfad other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$52 (+5%) realized +$55 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%31W / 61L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$87
14 days+$195
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$269
other 25% −$4
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -22.2% -29.6% 20% 20% +7.7%
≤30d 92 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 29% +12.5%
≤90d 92 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 29% +12.5%
all 92 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 29% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 29% +12.5%
10% -26.6% 26% +1.8%
15% -33.6% 25% -8.1%
20% -40.2% 24% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 61
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)92 / 103
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+73%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $113 +$236 +209%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$7 +365%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 −$1 -3%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +109%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1116%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $10 35m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $349 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 11¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 14¢ $103 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $20 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 9h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 32¢ $7 29h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $6 30h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.36 · official $20.33 (match) · 163 history records