Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ce8…2681 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.3% -21.5% 41% 35% -20.1%
≤30d 23 -25.5% -32.6% 39% 30% -21.6%
≤90d 23 -25.5% -32.6% 39% 30% -21.6%
all 23 -25.5% -32.6% 39% 30% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 30% -21.6%
10% -39.0% 22% -29.1%
15% -44.9% 17% -35.9%
20% -50.3% 17% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage21d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $153 −$74 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$11 -72%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $62 −$33 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$24 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$49 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$65 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $110 +$7 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records