Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2ce9…f9f1 other 111 markets active 14h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%19W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$945per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$46
other 40% −$49
sports 17% +$22
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 110 +0.7% -8.9% 17% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 13% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 13% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 10% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,295) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$9 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses19 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage114d
Avg bet$945
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $656 $658 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $257 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $1,098 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,109 −$3 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,697 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,184 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,790 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $2,251 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 04 $679 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $400 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $295 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,423 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? Apr 21 $292 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 21 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 21 $225 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,295 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,973 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,030 −$6 -1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,253 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $5,093 −$5 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,053 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,162 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,434 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 14h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 16h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $256 18h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $257 21h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $229 34h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $229 37h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $473 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $473 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $230 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $231 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $221 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $656 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,100 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,102 12d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $874 14d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $876 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $867 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $868 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $960 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $962 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $862 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $863 18d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,287 19d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,289 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,251 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,252 20d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,166 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.73 · official $657.73 (match) · 357 history records