Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2cea…4ecc crypto 160 markets active 16h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65,686 (-9%) realized −$65,684 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%86W / 73L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,753per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days−$249
14 days−$249
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$72,206
economics 23% +$25,638
world 9% −$25,578
tech 7% +$13,576
other 2% −$9,571
crypto 2% +$247
sports 1% +$2,006
culture 0% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 43% -30.7%
≤30d 7 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 43% -30.7%
≤90d 9 -28.5% -35.3% 33% 33% -39.2%
all 159 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 41% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 33% -25.3%
15% -24.7% 25% -32.5%
20% -32.1% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,101 vs −$2,197 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$65,684
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses86 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage601d
Avg bet$4,753
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$80 +79%
France leading at halftime? Jun 27 $61 +$69 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 −$5 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $352 −$350 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $202 +$106 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 11 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 17 $24 −$24 -98%
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? Mar 09 $997 +$134 +14%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Dec 16 $65 +$33 +51%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 14 $5,295 −$5,295 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 16 $3,450 −$2,393 -69%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $850 +$150 +18%
Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30? Oct 10 $1,314 +$486 +37%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Oct 10 $2 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Oct 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 27 $1,593 −$1,183 -74%
Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" by September 30? Sep 22 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" by October 15? Sep 22 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $4,243 +$1,735 +41%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $4,539 +$2,137 +47%
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? Sep 16 $304 −$55 -18%
Titans vs. Broncos Sep 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 03 $2,549 +$13 +0%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Aug 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26? Aug 27 $580 +$420 +72%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31? Aug 26 $171 +$44 +26%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 16 $1,870 +$130 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August? Aug 12 $1,300 −$720 -55%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Aug 09 $815 −$519 -64%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 08 $63 −$63 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Aug 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ET Aug 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 11PM ET Aug 06 $146 +$54 +37%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August? Aug 05 $122 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1AM ET Aug 05 $20 +$12 +61%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 05 $170 +$295 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12AM ET Aug 05 $20 +$6 +28%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Aug 01 $2 +$1 +59%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Aug 01 $200 +$35 +18%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Aug 01 $210 +$140 +67%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Jul 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on July 25? Jul 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jul 25 $71 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4AM ET Jul 25 $17 +$33 +194%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jul 25 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31? Jul 25 $190 +$7 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 24, 11AM ET Jul 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 16h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 62¢ $198 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $70 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $80 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $148 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 103d
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? BUY No 88¢ $997 117d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL Yes 99¢ $99 194d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 38¢ $94 236d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 236d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,347 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,413 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $846 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $327 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $785 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $289 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.28 · official $198.28 (match) · 3026 history records