Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2C 0x2cec…8cb1 other 45 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14 (+7%) realized +$17 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1
world 21% −$8
sports 17% +$30
politics 5% −$6
economics 5% $0
weather 3% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +34.3% +21.5% 41% 41% +20.0%
≤30d 31 +17.8% +6.6% 39% 39% +3.4%
≤90d 31 +17.8% +6.6% 39% 39% +3.4%
all 31 +17.8% +6.6% 39% 39% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 39% +3.4%
10% -3.6% 39% -6.5%
15% -12.9% 39% -15.5%
20% -21.4% 39% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)31 / 45
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+42%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 28¢ 53¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+89%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-31%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$13 +76%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria (24) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +307%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +325%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +249%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -83%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $3 +$7 +244%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $3 +$3 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 29 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $10 −$6 -59%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 24? May 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 40h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will Austria (24) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Will Austria (24) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.31 · official $87.31 (match) · 89 history records