Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ced…da99 other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,278 (-1%) realized −$1,278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$921per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$403
politics 33% −$60
sports 20% −$753
culture 2% −$3
economics 1% $0
world 1% −$52
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -4.2% -13.4% 14% 2% -11.3%
all 127 -7.5% -16.3% 20% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 7% -10.5%
10% -24.3% 7% -19.1%
15% -31.6% 6% -26.9%
20% -38.3% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,150) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized−$1,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage138d
Avg bet$921
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $532 $532 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $280 $280 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,930 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,956 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $210 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $409 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $881 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,551 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,190 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $170 +$1 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $168 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $371 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $381 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $382 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $313 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,002 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,069 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,201 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $847 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $901 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,259 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $844 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $280 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $532 45h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $903 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $904 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $792 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $793 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $861 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $781 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $782 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $937 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $938 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $838 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $840 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $753 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $754 10d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 11d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $861 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $890 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $891 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $663 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $664 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $995 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $991 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $993 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $878 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $879 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $811.67 · official $811.67 (match) · 401 history records