Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2cf2…fcec weather 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$869 (-4%) realized −$874 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate83%174W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$10
14 days−$5
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$192
other 6% +$108
sports 6% −$725
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.2% -16.1% 71% 29% -8.9%
≤30d 69 -3.2% -12.5% 86% 10% -12.0%
≤90d 209 -6.0% -15.0% 83% 11% -13.8%
all 209 -6.0% -15.0% 83% 11% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 11% -13.8%
10% -23.1% 3% -22.0%
15% -30.6% 3% -29.5%
20% -37.4% 2% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$58 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$874
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses174 / 35
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage47d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $84 $94 +$10 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $67 $62 −$5 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5 Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $102 +$64 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $87 +$15 +17%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $57 −$32 -56%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $112 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $66 +$8 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $87 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $96 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 06 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $96 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $90 +$11 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 03 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 27? May 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 27? May 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26? May 26 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26? May 26 $95 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 25 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 25 $99 −$69 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 24? May 24 $100 −$45 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 24? May 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 23? May 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 23? May 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 22? May 22 $92 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 17h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 23h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 25h
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $70 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 28h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 28h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $57 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $74 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $66 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $104 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 4d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $87 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 5d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.96 · official $155.96 (match) · 439 history records