Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2cf7…294a sports 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,424 (-3%) realized −$2,318 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%102W / 177L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$331est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$9,294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,014
7 days+$322
14 days+$516
30 days−$3,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$774
sports 28% −$1,335
other 21% −$554
politics 11% −$5
crypto 4% −$260
tech 0% −$10
culture 0% −$161
finance 0% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.8% -26.5% 26% 26% -7.2%
≤30d 89 -40.7% -46.4% 25% 22% -24.3%
≤90d 261 -21.6% -29.0% 36% 35% -12.6%
all 279 -20.0% -27.7% 37% 35% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 35% -12.9%
10% -34.6% 30% -21.2%
15% -40.9% 27% -28.8%
20% -46.7% 22% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$84 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$9,294
Realized−$2,318
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses102 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$331
Open positions34
Markets (closed)279 / 313
History coverage110d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1,998 $1,925 −$73 (-4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1,008 $997 −$11 (-1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $1,008 $976 −$32 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 54¢ $999 $954 −$45 (-4%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 60¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 54¢ $498 $481 −$18 (-4%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 61¢ $469 $477 +$8 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $387 $407 +$19 (+5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $317 $327 +$9 (+3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $250 $283 +$33 (+13%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $179 $282 +$103 (+57%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $150 $186 +$36 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $150 $168 +$18 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $150 $113 −$37 (-25%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $75 $85 +$10 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2,997 +$2,486 +83%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,254 −$207 -16%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,287 −$452 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,113 −$23 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,115 −$1,112 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,158 +$286 +25%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $230 +$36 +16%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $304 +$251 +83%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $532 −$17 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $560 −$555 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,134 −$29 -3%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $305 −$137 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$11 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $104 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +67%
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $102 −$5 -5%
Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $102 −$33 -32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $670 +$89 +13%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $1,013 +$79 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will LGD Gaming win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $101 +$28 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $233 +$55 +24%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $107 +$64 +60%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $67 −$13 -19%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $101 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $51 +$13 +25%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Rostikfacekid Club (BO3) - Winline Star Seri May 31 $60 +$39 +65%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 2 Winner May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 1 Winner May 31 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Gr May 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 2 Winner May 31 $51 −$7 -13%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 31 $45 −$24 -52%
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? May 31 $112 −$56 -50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 31 $41 −$41 -100%
Will BetBoom Team win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,027 9m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $915 16m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $114 16m
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $13 1h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 44¢ $345 1h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 41¢ $741 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 59¢ $1,090 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $102 4h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $375 4h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $374 4h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 56¢ $443 5h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $12 5h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $14 5h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $16 5h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $6 5h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $2 7h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $11 7h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $38 8h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $3 8h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $30 11h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $454 11h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $13 13h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $50 13h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $23 13h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $2 14h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $1 14h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $22 14h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $0 14h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,293.90 · official $9,294.85 (match) · 938 history records