Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cf8…31bc crypto 278 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,471 (-28%) realized −$7,491 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%105W / 171L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days−$457
14 days−$457
30 days−$2,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$5,445
weather 37% −$1,900
other 7% −$691
sports 0% −$103
tech 0% +$24
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% −$34
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 54 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 39% -42.1%
≤90d 276 -35.1% -41.3% 38% 34% -37.1%
all 276 -35.1% -41.3% 38% 34% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 34% -37.1%
10% -46.9% 25% -43.1%
15% -52.1% 21% -48.6%
20% -56.8% 18% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -49% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$81 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$7,491
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses105 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)276 / 278
History coverage64d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $122 $141 +$20 (+16%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 23 $379 −$379 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $63 +$52 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$36 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $403 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $53 +$45 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $53 +$31 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $42 −$31 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $53 +$81 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $105 +$93 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $53 +$41 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$14 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $108 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$32 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$11 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $622 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $527 −$527 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $653 +$519 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $267 −$219 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 27 $237 +$33 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $360 −$349 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? May 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 26 $323 −$210 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $103 +$141 +136%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $103 +$36 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26? May 25 $51 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 24 $381 −$381 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $104 +$78 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 47¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $400 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 88¢ $379 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 61¢ $52 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $93 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $63 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 55¢ $52 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $427 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? BUY No 93¢ $403 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $53 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $53 16d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $10 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $53 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $105 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $53 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $43 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.63 · official $142.63 (match) · 636 history records