Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cf8…078a sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$209 (-30%) realized −$206 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days−$64
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$105
other 31% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -46.8% -51.9% 25% 25% -21.1%
≤30d 9 -52.7% -57.2% 22% 22% -22.0%
≤90d 9 -52.7% -57.2% 22% 22% -22.0%
all 9 -52.7% -57.2% 22% 22% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.2% 22% -22.0%
10% -61.3% 22% -29.5%
15% -65.0% 22% -36.3%
20% -68.5% 22% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$43 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 52¢ 51¢ $180 $177 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $108 +$139 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $97 +$94 +97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 −$60 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $183 13m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $108 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $92 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $97 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.54 · official $176.54 (match) · 12 history records