Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2cfa…1788
politics · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$120 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$124 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$125
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)28 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 15 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? No 4¢ 26¢ $6 $38 +$32 (+538%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-28%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? No 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? No 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? No 12¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? No 10¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? No 7¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? No 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? No 0¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? No 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "N Word" this week? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -68%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$95 +1827%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 06 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "N Word" this week? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% +$44
crypto 33% −$55
world 13% −$63
other 11% −$35
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +11.9% +1.2% 25% 18% -41.9%
≤30d 28 +11.9% +1.2% 25% 18% -41.9%
≤90d 28 +11.9% +1.2% 25% 18% -41.9%
all 28 +11.9% +1.2% 25% 18% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 18% -41.9%
10% -8.5% 14% -47.4%
15% -17.3% 14% -52.5%
20% -25.4% 7% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.15 · official $125.15 (match) · 106 history records