Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2cfd…339b sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+2%) realized +$223 · open −$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$619per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$181
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -34.6%
≤30d 2 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -34.6%
≤90d 2 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -34.6%
all 2 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 50% -34.6%
10% -38.4% 50% -40.9%
15% -44.3% 50% -46.6%
20% -49.8% 50% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$882
Realized+$223
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage3d
Avg bet$619
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1,064 $882 −$181 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $10 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$11 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 44m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $165 44m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $49 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $835 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $270 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $260 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $270 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $250 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $161 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $95 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $208 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $5 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $5 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 47¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $882.48 · official $882.48 (match) · 22 history records