Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d04…805d other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$333 (-27%) realized −$256 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$82
14 days−$265
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$279
world 5% −$43
sports 4% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.5% +7.2% 67% 67% +14.2%
≤30d 13 +9.5% -0.9% 62% 62% -30.0%
≤90d 13 +9.5% -0.9% 62% 62% -30.0%
all 13 +9.5% -0.9% 62% 62% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 62% -30.0%
10% -10.4% 46% -36.7%
15% -19.1% 46% -42.8%
20% -27.0% 23% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$105 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $54 +$43 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 +$17 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $37 +$30 +83%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$17 -42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $27 −$18 -67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $450 −$447 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $124 +$59 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$36 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 −$43 -75%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$37 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 31m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $78 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $67 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $148 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $124 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $58 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $76 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 27 history records