Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d07…c1c2 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$654 (-7%) realized −$653 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,118
7 days−$957
14 days−$644
30 days−$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$819
other 14% +$181
tech 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.3% -17.9% 61% 28% -22.6%
≤30d 28 -3.6% -12.8% 71% 36% -15.5%
≤90d 28 -3.6% -12.8% 71% 36% -15.5%
all 28 -3.6% -12.8% 71% 36% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 36% -15.5%
10% -21.2% 7% -23.6%
15% -28.8% 0% -31.0%
20% -35.8% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$601) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$159 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$653
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 88¢ $225 $224 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $782 −$410 -52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 +$13 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $601 −$42 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 17 $601 −$601 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 +$8 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $236 +$15 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $78 +$23 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $69 +$8 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $119 −$49 -41%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $97 +$21 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $85 +$12 +14%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $641 +$39 +6%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $602 −$10 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $601 −$7 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $602 +$58 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $551 +$46 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $501 +$20 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $500 +$14 +3%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $471 +$51 +11%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $421 +$50 +12%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $302 +$60 +20%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $101 −$52 -51%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $302 +$96 +32%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $300 +$15 +5%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $260 +$20 +8%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $261 +$19 +7%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $201 +$40 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $226 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $227 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $180 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $145 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $602 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $313 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $322 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $300 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $49 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $251 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $236 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $237 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $40 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $601 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $101 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $78 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $78 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $69 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $70 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $119 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $119 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $97 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $97 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $85 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 93¢ $601 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $680 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Canada 94¢ $641 5d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 89¢ $591 5d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 90¢ $602 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 95¢ $594 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.72 · official $223.72 (match) · 73 history records