Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d07…8b9e sports 545 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,978 (-4%) realized −$2,114 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%260W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$419est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$38
14 days+$173
30 days−$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,340
other 9% −$43
finance 1% −$94
world 0% −$204
crypto 0% +$22
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +9.8% -0.7% 47% 41% -8.8%
≤30d 104 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 46% -14.1%
≤90d 338 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 47% -14.7%
all 540 -4.3% -13.4% 48% 47% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 47% -13.1%
10% -21.7% 43% -21.4%
15% -29.3% 37% -29.0%
20% -36.2% 31% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$69 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized−$2,114
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses260 / 280
Est. fees paid−$419
Open positions5
Markets (closed)540 / 545
History coverage152d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 540 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $250 $382 +$132 (+53%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $29 $32 +$4 (+12%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $282 +$18 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$195 +186%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $270 +$230 +85%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $120 +$130 +108%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$157 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $185 −$185 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $160 +$90 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $184 +$216 +117%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $108 +$492 +456%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $139 −$138 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $248 +$202 +82%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$249 +488%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $183 +$127 +69%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $178 −$177 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $137 +$6 +5%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $83 +$17 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $138 +$162 +117%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $111 +$189 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $204 +$96 +47%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $274 +$77 +28%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $90 +$110 +122%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $152 +$98 +65%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $84 +$116 +138%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $100 +$100 +100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $108 −$108 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $132 +$168 +127%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $132 +$128 +97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $86 +$214 +249%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner May 31 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $144 +$45 +31%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $120 +$28 +23%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $43 +$77 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $138 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $144 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 35¢ $105 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $25 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $45 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $5 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $20 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $4 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $51 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $108 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $146 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $0 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $2 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $0 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.11 · official $541.11 (match) · 1856 history records