Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d08…0a77 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$4
politics 30% $0
other 11% +$2
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.4% 12% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -10.5%
all 46 +1.1% -8.6% 35% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage298d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $34 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 −$4 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $7 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $3 $0 +5%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $12 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 -30%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $19 $0 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 10 $21 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $25 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $34 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $35 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $24 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $11 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.33 · official $36.33 (match) · 160 history records