Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
2D 0x2d0b…3282 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,551 (+19%) realized +$2,598 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$257
14 days+$654
30 days+$4,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$691
sports 24% +$4,893
world 19% −$2,500
politics 9% −$618
crypto 5% +$670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +41.6% +28.1% 50% 50% +9.2%
≤30d 15 +65.6% +49.9% 40% 40% +129.4%
≤90d 24 +54.6% +39.9% 46% 46% +113.9%
all 43 +35.6% +22.7% 40% 40% +28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.7% 40% +28.5%
10% +10.9% 37% +16.2%
15% +0.2% 33% +5.0%
20% -9.6% 33% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +136% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$513 vs −$213 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$2,683
Realized+$2,598
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions10
Markets (closed)43 / 61
History coverage160d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 81¢ $610 $587 −$23 (-4%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 92¢ 96¢ $500 $525 +$25 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $400 $342 −$58 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $300 $308 +$8 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $200 $284 +$84 (+42%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $220 $178 −$42 (-19%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 +$233 +325%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $164 −$160 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $204 +$329 +162%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $405 +$255 +63%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 +$382 +250%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$565 +276%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $500 +$4,045 +809%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $305 +$464 +152%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 28 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $300 +$41 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $200 +$330 +165%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Apr 14 $50 −$49 -97%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 09 $100 +$200 +200%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $200 +$394 +197%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Liverpool FC? Apr 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Vitinha: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 08 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $200 +$70 +35%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a dra Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 5? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Mar 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $50 +$245 +489%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 +$203 +203%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $500 −$493 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $200 +$245 +122%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16? Feb 27 $300 +$72 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $100 +$644 +644%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score Jan 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $164 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $72 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $204 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 61¢ $405 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 36¢ $408 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a dr BUY 22¢ $77 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 14¢ $77 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $67 11d
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 11d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 11d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $224 11d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 28¢ $153 11d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Mor BUY 2¢ $51 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 50¢ $152 11d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 11d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13 BUY 49¢ $305 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 11d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 11d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 11d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $154 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $613 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,683.05 · official $2,679.05 (match) · 118 history records