Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d0c…8e50 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$22
14 days−$91
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$95
politics 25% −$21
sports 21% $0
crypto 7% −$5
finance 5% +$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% −$6
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 63 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 109 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.2%
all 136 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 116
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage106d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $168 −$2 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $243 −$2 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $178 −$4 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $63 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $543 −$9 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $60 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $37 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $62 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $102 −$1 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $413 −$4 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $60 −$1 -2%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 07 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $207 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $268 −$56 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $233 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 02 $52 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $276 −$2 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $485 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $65 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 7h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 8h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 14h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 14h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 19h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $55 19h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $55 27h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $62 28h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $62 33h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 33h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 40h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $52 41h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $52 47h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $53 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $52 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $62 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $63 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 86¢ $50 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $17 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $49.62 (match) · 541 history records