Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d0d…ea2c sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$108 (+2%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$724
other 48% −$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 3 -66.3% -69.5% 33% 0% -21.5%
≤90d 16 -62.1% -65.7% 25% 12% -34.7%
all 21 -31.8% -38.3% 33% 24% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 24% -26.1%
10% -44.2% 19% -33.2%
15% -49.6% 14% -39.6%
20% -54.5% 10% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$133 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage128d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,020 +$10 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $120 −$118 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $183 −$49 -27%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $160 −$156 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $147 −$92 -63%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 13 $250 −$246 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $805 +$55 +7%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $166 −$45 -27%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $102 +$116 +114%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $238 −$17 -7%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $197 −$192 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $814 +$103 +13%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $699 −$447 -64%
Pistons vs. Thunder Apr 02 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $360 +$97 +27%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $68 +$309 +454%
Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barrios Feb 22 $313 +$140 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $204 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $101 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $101 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $73 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $500 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $191 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $140 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $52 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $359 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $88 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $81 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $161 7d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $120 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $329 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 35¢ $50 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $49 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $82 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $3 23d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $38 42d
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $41 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $54 47d
Sabres vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 23¢ $54 47d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $108 47d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 39¢ $92 47d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $51 47d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $51 47d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $96 47d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 20¢ $106 47d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 60¢ $5 48d
Thunder vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 46¢ $4 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records