Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d10…82cf other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$235 (-38%) realized −$233 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$15
world 39% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 -97.0% -97.3% 0% 0% -92.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.3% 0% -92.6%
10% -97.6% 0% -93.3%
15% -97.8% 0% -94.0%
20% -98.0% 0% -94.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$77 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage132d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $135 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Feb 27 $230 −$209 -91%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in F Feb 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $72 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $67 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $67 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 110d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $230 117d
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in F BUY No 32¢ $13 132d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.60 · official $357.60 (match) · 10 history records