Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d11…9008
other · 245 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$72 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage124d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 244 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $426 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $304 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $391 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $213 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $265 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $307 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $341 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $570 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $690 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $131 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $304 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $134 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $129 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $155 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $446 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $311 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$38
sports 23% −$18
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 7% +$3
economics 5% −$7
world 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 58m
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 3h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 4h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 6h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 7h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 9h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 14h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 15h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 16h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 18h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 40h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 1% -9.7%
all 244 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.72 · official $57.72 (match) · 1256 history records