Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d12…12c0 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$333 (-19%) realized −$349 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$108
14 days−$343
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.1% -14.2% 56% 56% -29.3%
≤30d 24 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -27.4%
≤90d 24 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -27.4%
all 24 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 50% -27.4%
10% -30.9% 50% -34.4%
15% -37.6% 46% -40.7%
20% -43.7% 25% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$71 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage11d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 44¢ $26 $41 +$16 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $26 +$35 +134%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$12 +44%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $121 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $96 +$25 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $70 +$27 +38%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $33 +$36 +112%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $53 −$46 -86%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $33 +$20 +60%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $44 −$44 -99%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $272 −$269 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $82 +$83 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$56 +109%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $107 −$106 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $177 +$104 +59%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $126 +$51 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $87 +$40 +46%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $61 +$26 +43%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 52¢ $62 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $62 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $26 34h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 68¢ $26 2d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 54¢ $121 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 100¢ $121 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 79¢ $96 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $96 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 71¢ $70 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $69 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 44¢ $7 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte $7 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 31¢ $53 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 99¢ $53 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 61¢ $33 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 78¢ $31 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 75¢ $13 10d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) BUY B8 32¢ $55 10d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) BUY Anyones Legend 68¢ $272 10d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 56¢ $107 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $41 10d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 47¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $82 10d
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $281 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.23 · official $41.23 (match) · 40 history records