Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d13…cdde world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$4
other 6% −$2
finance 1% $0
sports 1% −$10
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 55% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 41 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 5% -9.4%
all 48 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage523d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $41 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $41 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $81 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $25 +$4 +17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 −$1 -20%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $47 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $267 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $509 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $9 −$1 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $242 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $442 +$1 +0%
Rice vs. Tulane Feb 16 $14 −$14 -100%
NHL 4 Nations: Sweden vs. Finland Feb 15 $7 $0 -3%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Feb 14 $3 +$3 +108%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 13 $4 −$2 -45%
Lehigh vs. Navy Feb 13 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day? Feb 03 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the Buccaneers and Commanders combine for 51 or more points? Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $41 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $16 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $22 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.92 · official $37.92 (match) · 165 history records