Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d17…9e0a other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (237 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,029per market
Trades / day237.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
economics 58% −$25
politics 24% −$10
world 13% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
finance 0% $0
other 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (237 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +14.3% +3.4% 25% 25% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +14.3% +3.4% 25% 25% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +14.3% +3.4% 25% 25% -9.6%
all 16 +14.3% +3.4% 25% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover237.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 25% -9.6%
10% -6.5% 19% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -15.6% 19% -26.2%
20% -23.8% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,029
Trades / day237.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $8,681 −$10 -0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect Jun 17 $4,478 −$6 -0%
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 17 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 17 $1,369 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $19,206 −$22 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 16 $756 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +223%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $595 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $154 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $154 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $154 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $154 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $154 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $154 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $156 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $156 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $157 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $157 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $157 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $157 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.99 · official $1.99 (match) · 523 history records