Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d19…345e crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate79%23W / 6L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$21
other 7% +$5
sports 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.1% -16.8% 79% 17% -7.6%
≤30d 29 -8.1% -16.8% 79% 17% -7.6%
≤90d 29 -8.1% -16.8% 79% 17% -7.6%
all 29 -8.1% -16.8% 79% 17% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 17% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 3% -16.5%
15% -32.0% 0% -24.5%
20% -38.7% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses23 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $120 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $125 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $126 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$25 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $138 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 18 $27 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $10 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records