Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d1c…966a
sports · 384 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$65 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses203 / 170
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions11
Markets (closed)373 / 384
History coverage215d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 11 History 373 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$17
14 days+$18
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals No 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees No 55¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees No 52¢ 31¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $3 +$3 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ta Jun 10 $10 +$3 +33%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $1 +$1 +85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $4 +$2 +57%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $3 +$3 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 +$4 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 05 $3 +$3 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago Jun 05 $5 +$6 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 04 $3 +$2 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 04 $3 +$3 +83%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $3 +$4 +129%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $3 +$4 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$30
crypto 8% −$49
other 5% −$58
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $3 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $5 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $5 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $3 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $10 10h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $5 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 37¢ $3 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $5 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 54¢ $5 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $5 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $10 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $5 3d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan BUY No 50¢ $5 3d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo BUY No 53¢ $5 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $5 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $5 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $5 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 40¢ $3 3d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals BUY No 54¢ $5 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $3 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY No 54¢ $3 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 51¢ $5 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies BUY No 57¢ $5 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ta SELL Yes 44¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.3% +3.4% 62% 59% -1.0%
≤30d 143 +10.5% -0.0% 57% 56% -3.3%
≤90d 241 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 41% -20.8%
all 373 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 50% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 50% -14.3%
10% -17.9% 46% -22.5%
15% -25.8% 41% -30.0%
20% -33.1% 38% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.52 · official $47.52 (match) · 800 history records