Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2d1d…9cb4 other 186 markets active 2d ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,572 (-5%) realized −$1,135 · open −$437
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate63%104W / 62L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$131
14 days−$249
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$37
other 27% −$1,294
politics 12% −$78
finance 11% +$283
culture 11% +$32
crypto 6% −$206
sports 3% −$450
tech 1% −$11
economics 1% +$19
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +119.2% +98.3% 100% 62% +28.0%
≤30d 66 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 23% -18.3%
≤90d 83 -3.7% -12.9% 55% 25% -11.8%
all 166 -3.8% -12.9% 63% 30% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 30% -14.5%
10% -21.3% 18% -22.7%
15% -28.9% 9% -30.2%
20% -35.8% 7% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$58 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized−$1,135
Unrealized−$437
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses104 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions20
Markets (closed)166 / 186
History coverage173d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $689 $264 −$425 (-62%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 71¢ 58¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 83¢ 82¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 68¢ $56 $60 +$3 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 72¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 68¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No 91¢ 81¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? No 97¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 24¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $151 +$65 +43%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $80 +$19 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +388%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $121 −$59 -49%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$14 -80%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $656 −$276 -42%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $481 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 19¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $20 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $52 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $99 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $57 4d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY Yes 84¢ $17 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $44 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $62 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $62 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $121 10d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $101 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 12¢ $6 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 10d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 10d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 93¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $490 11d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 72¢ $488 11d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $500 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $37 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 21¢ $46 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 30¢ $131 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 19¢ $166 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.24 · official $686.24 (match) · 639 history records