Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d1f…04ba other 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$34
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$49
sports 24% −$21
culture 8% −$9
economics 7% −$6
politics 6% −$4
world 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 84 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage127d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $211 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $398 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $236 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $703 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $412 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $526 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $135 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $270 −$4 -2%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $37 3h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $30 3h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 4h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 7h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 8h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $37 11h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $37 12h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 13h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 14h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $37 17h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $37 19h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 20h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 25h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 26h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 32h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 34h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 36h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 38h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 38h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 39h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $38 42h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $38 44h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 45h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 46h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1383 history records