Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d21…92e5 sports 596 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,922 (+2%) realized +$3,117 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%248W / 338L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day63.6pace
Fees−$2,058est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$2,453
world 5% −$3,964
other 3% +$451
crypto 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -13.1% -21.4% 44% 44% -7.6%
≤30d 329 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 41% -12.0%
≤90d 586 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 42% -10.2%
all 586 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 42% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 42% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 41% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 38% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 36% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$177 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$3,117
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses248 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,058
Open positions8
Markets (closed)586 / 596
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$207
Trades / day63.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) New York Mets 56¢ 56¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Karmine Corp 53¢ 46¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-13%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 88¢ 87¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 26¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 48¢ $19 $22 +$4 (+19%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Toronto KOI 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Toronto KOI 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $600 −$391 -65%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $470 +$277 +59%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$131 +129%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $266 +$403 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $494 +$319 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $770 +$268 +35%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$17 +53%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $197 −$194 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $771 −$760 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$131 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $29 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $29 −$29 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $249 +$399 +160%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $97 −$95 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $98 −$95 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $112 −$110 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $512 +$388 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $424 +$422 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $252 +$111 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $508 −$221 -44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $253 +$156 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $253 +$193 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $203 +$181 +89%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $102 +$159 +156%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $248 −$245 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 −$297 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $187 −$184 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $253 +$197 +78%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 +$185 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $355 +$378 +106%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $153 +$252 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $318 +$117 +37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $379 −$373 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $161 −$157 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $111 −$109 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $194 +$229 +118%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $190 −$187 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $11 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 88¢ $28 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 11¢ $210 3h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 56¢ $253 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $600 5h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL Toronto KOI 100¢ $47 5h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL Toronto KOI 100¢ $484 5h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 49¢ $102 6h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 48¢ $102 6h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 44¢ $237 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $228 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 6h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL G2 Minnesota 57¢ $216 6h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 60¢ $233 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $102 8h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $669 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $813 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2 BUY 32¢ $345 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $494 12h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $266 12h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $758 24h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $179 27h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY Toronto KOI 34¢ $102 28h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 60¢ $280 28h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $591 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $48 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 64¢ $31 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.95 · official $364.95 (match) · 3500 history records