Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d21…7044 crypto 15 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.7% -4.3% 73% 47% -13.9%
≤30d 15 +5.7% -4.3% 73% 47% -13.9%
≤90d 15 +5.7% -4.3% 73% 47% -13.9%
all 15 +5.7% -4.3% 73% 47% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 47% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 33% -22.1%
15% -21.8% 13% -29.7%
20% -29.5% 7% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$4 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records