Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d25…e2c8 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
other 22% $0
sports 10% −$1
politics 9% −$2
finance 2% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -6.2% -15.1% 38% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 15 -6.7% -15.6% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 33 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -9.1%
10% -20.7% 3% -17.8%
15% -28.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage258d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $121 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $40 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $145 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $59 +$6 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $87 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 23 $43 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 13? Oct 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $39 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $40 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $45 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $2 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $7 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $36 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $5 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $38 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $63 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $63 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.08 · official $32.76 · 303 history records