Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d26…2bb9 weather 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+3%) realized +$104 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate82%143W / 32L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$42
14 days+$61
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +1.8% -7.9% 90% 56% -4.9%
≤30d 175 -4.0% -13.1% 82% 45% -7.0%
≤90d 175 -4.0% -13.1% 82% 45% -7.0%
all 175 -4.0% -13.1% 82% 45% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 45% -7.0%
10% -21.5% 10% -15.9%
15% -29.0% 2% -24.0%
20% -36.0% 1% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses143 / 32
Open positions21
Markets (closed)175 / 196
History coverage26d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Yes 78¢ 95¢ $30 $36 +$7 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 21? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 92¢ 41¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Yes 84¢ 23¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $60 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 85¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.04 · official $73.42 (match) · 396 history records