Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d27…76d8
politics · 20 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$825 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$205 · open −$1,114
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,272
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$1,114
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)11 / 20
Avg bet$210
Trades / day135.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 12 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$83
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $1,500 $2,552 +$1,052 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $1,500 $448 −$1,052 (-70%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+70%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+68%)
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parli Jun 07 $0 +$2 +4573%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $38 +$68 +181%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $0 $0 +19%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $29 +$11 +39%
Will Lee Kwang-jae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio May 26 $0 +$20 +13216%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $44 +$11 +25%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $140 +$54 +38%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $8 +$26 +337%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 87% −$1,084
other 9% +$54
world 4% +$122
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 15m
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local govern BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 9h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +82%
net ROI/market (all)+378.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2000.0% +1800.0% 100% 100% +1800.0%
≤30d 11 +428.8% +378.5% 91% 82% +24.6%
≤90d 11 +428.8% +378.5% 91% 82% +24.6%
all 11 +428.8% +378.5% 91% 82% +24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover135.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +378.5% 82% +24.6%
10% ← realistic here +332.7% 73% +12.7%
15% +290.9% 64% +1.8%
20% +252.6% 45% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,271.60 · official $3,271.60 (match) · 3500 history records