Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d28…9c8e crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-8%) realized −$20 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$2
other 16% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 40% -16.5%
≤30d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 40% -16.5%
≤90d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 40% -16.5%
all 10 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 40% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 40% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 10% -24.4%
15% -28.5% 10% -31.7%
20% -35.5% 10% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+237%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.84 · official $19.87 (match) · 38 history records