Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d2a…cc00 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-6%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.3% -23.3% 50% 38% -22.9%
≤30d 24 -15.3% -23.3% 50% 38% -22.9%
≤90d 24 -15.3% -23.3% 50% 38% -22.9%
all 24 -15.3% -23.3% 50% 38% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 38% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 25% -30.3%
15% -37.4% 25% -37.0%
20% -43.5% 21% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $39 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $37 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records