Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d2f…35f2
other · 236 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$97 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 228
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage122d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $324 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $75 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $355 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $166 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $434 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $236 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $165 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $223 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $295 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $408 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $206 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $393 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$33
sports 29% −$21
politics 8% −$5
culture 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$24
economics 6% −$5
world 4% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $33 38m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $33 15h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $33 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $33 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $33 27h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $33 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $34 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 38h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 40h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 41h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 43h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 45h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 46h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $34 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $34 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 88 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.10 · official $33.10 (match) · 1312 history records