Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2D 0x2d2f…a285 sports 430 markets active 11h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$180 (-5%) realized −$176 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%183W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$19
14 days−$21
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$103
other 42% −$281
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +6.5% -3.6% 44% 43% -5.2%
≤30d 292 -4.5% -13.6% 40% 39% -12.8%
≤90d 379 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 42% -10.6%
all 428 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 42% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 42% -14.4%
10% -19.7% 40% -22.6%
15% -27.4% 39% -30.1%
20% -34.6% 36% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses183 / 245
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)428 / 430
History coverage246d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France Jun 17 $3 +$11 +332%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$7 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +122%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$3 -45%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$3 +128%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -90%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +170%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +92%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $8 −$6 -65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +70%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +79%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$10 -44%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$3 -86%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $4 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $4 16h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 18h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France BUY 23¢ $3 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 18h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $6 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 19h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 52¢ $3 20h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 SELL Under 100¢ $7 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 36h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 40h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 43h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $3 43h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 43h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $3 43h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 4¢ $0 44h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 37¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 37¢ $3 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $3 2d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 57¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.10 · official $96.10 (match) · 1170 history records