Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2D 0x2d33…a77d crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$358 (+15%) realized +$275 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%153W / 111L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day216.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 58% +1.3%
≤30d 264 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 58% +1.3%
≤90d 264 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 58% +1.3%
all 264 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 58% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 58% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 58% -8.4%
15% -15.1% 58% -17.2%
20% -23.4% 57% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses153 / 111
Open positions2
Markets (closed)264 / 266
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day216.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.41 · official $26.47 · 449 history records