Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2D 0x2d33…28f8 sports 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$83 (+6%) realized +$79 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%96W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$125
14 days+$67
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$45
other 9% −$22
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +9.9% -0.5% 45% 44% +12.6%
≤30d 398 -11.6% -20.0% 24% 23% -12.8%
≤90d 398 -11.6% -20.0% 24% 23% -12.8%
all 398 -11.6% -20.0% 24% 23% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 23% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 22% -21.2%
15% -34.7% 21% -28.8%
20% -41.1% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses96 / 302
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)398 / 399
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 44¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+129%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $3 +$6 +184%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $6 +$5 +82%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $3 +$4 +118%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $7 +$7 +100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $3 +$6 +207%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $4 +$8 +200%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$9 +177%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $5 +$10 +187%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $3 +$4 +126%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $4 +$3 +63%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $9 −$1 -16%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$5 +95%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $3 +$5 +162%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $9 +$13 +142%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $4 +$4 +88%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $1 $0 +44%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $9 +$9 +95%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $3 +$3 +112%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A Jun 19 $3 +$7 +220%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $4 +$7 +160%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $6 +$12 +195%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1 +$3 +276%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $4 +$6 +155%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $4 +$2 +42%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $4 −$2 -39%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $7 +$10 +141%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $5 +$7 +135%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 41¢ $2 57m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 50¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 26¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 26¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 26¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 55¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $1 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 28¢ $2 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $1 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 7h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $2 7h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 53¢ $1 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $1 8h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 33¢ $2 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $2 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 29¢ $1 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $2 8h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $1 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 27¢ $2 9h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 25¢ $1 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 28¢ $1 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 29¢ $1 9h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 30¢ $2 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 32¢ $1 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 33¢ $1 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $1 10h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 33¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.87 · official $6.87 (match) · 1109 history records