Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d3a…7d4a crypto 1038 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (272 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,165 (+37%) realized +$5,165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%487W / 551L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day271.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (272 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 435 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 26% -11.9%
≤30d 1038 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 27% -12.2%
≤90d 1038 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 27% -12.2%
all 1038 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 27% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover271.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 27% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 13% -20.6%
15% -28.3% 6% -28.2%
20% -35.3% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses487 / 551
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1038 / 1038
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day271.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1038 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records