Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2d3d…0299 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,462 (+42%) realized +$1,536 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,229
7 days+$1,336
14 days+$1,336
30 days+$1,425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$1,244
other 47% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +76.5% +59.7% 67% 67% +60.4%
≤30d 9 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 56% +45.8%
≤90d 9 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 56% +45.8%
all 9 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 56% +45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.3% 56% +45.8%
10% +26.0% 56% +31.8%
15% +13.8% 44% +19.1%
20% +2.7% 33% +7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$13 · ×23.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.99 per $1 lost it wins $28.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1,065
Realized+$1,536
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage41d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $403 $406 +$3 (+1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $201 $204 +$3 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $209 $192 −$16 (-8%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $221 $165 −$57 (-26%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $104 $98 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $374 +$933 +250%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $294 +$90 +31%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $236 +$238 +101%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $325 −$32 -10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $124 +$109 +88%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $377 −$3 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $292 +$105 +36%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $308 −$16 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $205 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $407 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $107 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $214 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $294 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $293 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $236 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $20 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $210 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $374 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $375 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $274 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $124 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $397 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 18d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $292 21d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $292 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 40d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $124 40d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 40d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 40d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 40d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $308 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,064.64 · official $1,064.64 (match) · 71 history records